On November 2, 2018, the China-Russian Belt and Road Collaborative Conference was held in the Bianhai Building of Wuhan University. The seminar was co-sponsored by the Wuhan University China Institute of Boundary and Ocean Studies (CIBOS), the Wuhan University Institute of Belt and Road Construction Research, and the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IFES-RAS). More than 20 experts and scholars, from the IFES-RAS, Wuhan University, Fudan University, Sichuan University, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) and Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, were invited to attend the conference
At the opening ceremony, Professor Yu Minyou, Dean of the CIBOS and Professor Yanayev, Deputy Director of the IFES-RAS, gave the welcome speeches. Professor Yu Minyou pointed out that China and Russia are each other's largest neighbors and are both key countries in the cooperation between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union. China and Russia are also the core countries in building the Ice Silk Road. At present, the trend of counter-globalization is surging, unilateralism and protectionism are rising. China and Russia are both negatively affected in certain degrees. As comprehensive strategic cooperation partners, China and Russia should further strengthen policy coordination, deepen pragmatic cooperation, and keep building the community of common interests, the community of common responsibility, and the community of common destiny. Yanayev believes that China and Russia should continue to deepen bilateral cooperation, and the China-Russian Belt and Road Collaborative Conference is conducive to summarizing problems and exploring solutions in different aspects at a global level, and provides intellectual support for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative in Eurasia and the construction of the the Ice Silk Road.
The conference was held in the form of an academic forum. The attendants combined theory and practice in their discussion of the bilateral and multilateral cooperation between China and Russia in the global, regional and bilateral level, and proposed a many valuable suggestions. The main content of this conference is recorded as follows.
Topic One: Cooperation between China and Russia under the global and regional framework: Common interests, Common challenges and Opportunities for Cooperation
Professor Feng Yujun, Fudan University Institute of International Studies
Theme of the speech: China-Russia relations under the changing international situation. Professor Feng Yujun first analyzed the profound changes faced by the international community today: (1) From the perspective of the overall strategic structure, the imbalance of world development is being further intensified, and the strength of the “Only Super Power” – the United States, has not yet declined substantially. The process of multipolarization is facing a lot of difficulties; (2) From the perspective of international order, the liberal international order and the multilateral international order are being challenged, realism and conservatism are on the rise; (3) From perspective of international relations’ reality, the foreign policies of major countries become more pragmatic, and pragmatism has become the hallmark of foreign policy in most countries; (4) From the perspective of state governance, domestic issues are given higher priority than that of external affairs. States put their main resources and energy on their domestic affairs. Based on the analysis above, Professor Feng Yujun believes that the close relation between China and Russia is not able to ease the pressure from the United States; the traditional triangular relationship with geopolitics being its core is no longer in line with the changes in the current international agenda; the bilateral relations of China-Russia, China-US, Russia-US each has its own value and characteristics. They should be developed in parallel and avoid conflicting with each other. The three countries should assume their international responsibilities respectively and jointly promote the benign interaction of their bilateral relations, and solve increasingly complex regional and international issues, including the military issues; each of the three countries shall not use the power of third parties to oppose others. China, Russia and the US should assume the responsibility of constructive powers, and jointly safeguard the international peace and regional security.
Professor Yanayev, IFES-RAS
Theme of the speech: Trilateral cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia as the result of the Eurasian Initiative. Professor Yanayev first analyzed the process of economic cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia, and pointed out that the "Belt and Road" initiative of China, the “Grasslands Road” strategy of Mongolia, the "Eurasian Economic Union" and the Eurasian partnership strategy of Russia have a common ground, that is “to promote integration, and attach importance to infrastructure construction”, which proves that the initiatives of the three countries can cooperate with each other. In order to achieve the cooperation of these initiatives, the relationship between the three countries should be consolidated, the political mutual trust should be enhanced, the strategic cooperation should be strengthened, and the regional and economic cooperation should be expanded; Moreover, the construction of the economic corridor between China, Mongolia and Russia should be promoted, and the mutually beneficial cooperation in infrastructure construction, energy, transportation, trade, tourism and customs should also be promoted. In addition, Professor Yanayev reiterated the speech of President Putin on the construction of the tripartite economic corridor during the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Qingdao in June 2018, to express his hope that the three countries can strengthen cooperation in all aspects, and strive to overcome the existing obstacles in various aspects, and to promote the common development and win-win situation of the three countries.
Professor Mi Jun, Sichuan University School of International Studies
Theme of the speech: The Construction of China-Russia-Mongolia Economic Corridor: Basis, Challenges and Paths. Professor Mi Jun first emphasized that under the background of the declining of the global economic multilateralism, the construction of China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor has great political and economic value for the development of the three countries' regional development strategy and the development of the economic cooperation of Northeast Asia. As for the strategic needs of the main countries of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, this economic corridor conforms to the strategic demands of the three countries. As for the main challenges faced by China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor construction: the soft constraint of cooperation mechanism significantly affects the construction process of economic corridor; the economic links between China, Mongolia and Russia in the global trade network are weak; the shortage of funds and the problem of the driving effect of border ports have not been solved; the constraints of infrastructure factors in Russia and Mongolia are also important constraints that affect cooperation. From the development path of China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor construction, it mainly includes: strengthening the supply of international public goods in various regional levels; stimulating the potential of economic corridors through the connection of infrastructure supply; enhancing the driving force of border ports from the coordinated development of port economy and port cities, developing cross-border industrial science and technology cooperation park to enhance the industrial linkage between China, Mongolia and Russia.
Dr. Kulintsev, IFES-RAS
Theme of the speech: The cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and the “Belt and Road” Initiative: the interests of Russia and China. Kulintsev analyzed the possibilities of cooperation between China and Russia in economic areas: (1) Russia is very interested in large infrastructure project and is looking for common investment conditions; (2) An agreement with China can protect the economic interests of both countries; (3) China’s national interests are closely related to the Greater Eurasian Partnership, and cooperation with China is of great significance; (4) Cooperation with China is conducive to both countries when facing economic sanctions of Western countries. Therefore, he believes that China and Russia should establish a new Eurasian economic corridor, strengthen trade cooperation; develop a favorable economic and trade environment; build a closer relation with Central Asia, and further develop the political relations between China and Russian. At the same time, he stressed that China and Russia should pay special attention to the following issues: strengthening the building of energy infrastructure, ensuring the stability of natural gas and oil projects, and establishing mechanisms to tackle the common challenges; strengthening cooperation in cross-border transportation; drawing on the experience of the SCO to strengthen institutional connection, such as the customs system.
Professor Zhou Maorong, Wuhan University Institute for International Studies
Theme of the speech: Economic and Trade Cooperation Agreement between China and Eurasian Economic Union: Content, Features and Prospects. Zhou Maorong first reviewed the background against which the Agreement on Economic and Trade Cooperation between China and the Eurasian Economic Union was proposed, that is, the desire of both Russia and China to connect the Eurasian Economic Union with the “Belt and Road” Initiative. Professor Zhou pointed out that this agreement mainly focuses on promoting trade facilitation, on new trade issues and on promoting departmental cooperation and system building. Although this agreement can bring huge economic results, there is still a considerable distance to establish a real free trade zone. On the one hand, the internal motivation of the Eurasian Economic Union is insufficient, and on the other hand, the skepticism and wariness between members of the Eurasian Economic Union and China in establishing a free trade zone are difficult to eliminate. Based on this, three suggestions for countermeasures are proposed, namely: to ensure the implementation of the agreement, using facts to prove and enhance the level of economic and trade cooperation between the parties; to start from a low-level integration, gradually increase the degree of integration; and to strengthen the research of the "Eurasia Economic Partnership" Initiative, and to build a free trade zone with larger scale.
Topic 2: Cooperation between China and Russia in the bilateral field: the driving force of strategic partnership
Mr. Mokoletski, Fellow of IFES-RAS
Theme of the speech: the international relation development of Russia and China after the election of the heads of state in 2018: the priority. After the 2018 Russian presidential election, Putin published the "2018 State of the Union Address" on March 1, 2018; along with his speech at the 4th Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok and another important speech delivered on 19th October. Mr. Mokoletski concluded from these three speeches that the key points included: to open up to the outside world, to develop the Far East and to protect the current world order. He believes that Putin's new foreign policy during his presidency is aimed at creating more favorable international conditions for Russia's internal development and achieving strategic goals under the constantly changing international circumstances. In the new era, China’s foreign policy has also become more proactive and responsible. The international cooperation between China and Russia has great potential, and the long-term mutually beneficial development between China and Russia not only serves the interests of peoples of both countries, but also contributes to safeguard the prosperity and security of the world.
Professor Li Renzhen, CIBOS
Theme of the speech: China-Russian financial cooperation in the context of the “Belt and Road” Initiative. Professor Li Renzhen pointed out that financial cooperation has always been an important part of China-Russian cooperation in the economic and trade field, and it is also an important support for the cooperation of the "Belt and Road" Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union. Under the background of the “Belt and Road” Initiative, the cooperation between China and Russia in local currency settlement, investment and financing, financial technology and financial regulation has gained a lot of positive results. The field of cooperation is expanding, and the models of partnership are innovating. However, compared with the high degree of political mutual trust and security cooperation between the two countries, the depth and breadth of financial cooperation are still insufficient. There are many institutional obstacles and legal risks, which need to be recognized and be resolved. Professor Li believes that the continuous development of financial cooperation between China and Russia is of great benefits, including the continued advancement of the internationalization of the renminbi, the steady development of China-Russian economic exchanges and trade, and the improvement of bilateral cooperation mechanisms between China and Russia. In addition, Russia faces economic sanctions from the Western world, and the demand for cooperation with China is unprecedentedly strong. At the same time, the China-Russian financial cooperation also faces some problems and challenges: First, the overall level of China-Russian economic and trade cooperation is not high, and the depth and breadth of financial cooperation are limited; Second, the bilateral financial cooperation system is not sound, and there are still many obstacles in some business cooperation areas; Third, the cooperation in the field of financial supervision remain insufficient, and the risk of cross-border financial services are high. Accordingly, Professor Li suggested that China and Russia should further strengthen financial cooperation, the main measures include: strengthening the communication and connection of bilateral financial policies; improving the level of facilitation of local currency settlement in bilateral economic and trade fields; and optimizing the overall layout of bilateral financial institutions and financial services; deepening coordination and cooperation of bilateral financial regulation.
Associate Professor Diao Li, Economic and Management School of Wuhan University
Theme of the speech: China's policy-related loans for oil and China-Russian energy cooperation. Diao Li pointed out that after the International Cooperation Summit Conference of "Belt and Road" Initiative in May 2017 China, comprehensive strategic cooperation between China and Russia has made a new major progress. The energy cooperation under policy-related loans is a typical representative of development in recent years. She built a VAR model of the “China-Russia policy-related loans for oil” project, to analyze the distribution of interests of China-Russian oil cooperation and its impact on the economic development of the two countries, and reached the following conclusions: (1) The energy cooperation between China and Russia is beneficial to China's economic development in the short term. In the long run, it will have a greater role in promoting Russia's economic development, and compared with China's short-term gains, Russia will benefit more from it in the long-term. (2) In the short term, it is conducive to safeguarding China's energy supply, but in the long-term, it has adverse impact on the final resolution of China's energy problems, demonstrating a tendency of harming China’s national interest. (3) Russia will receive the long-term interests and China will gain short-term benefits, indicating that in a certain period of time, there exist the grounds for China-Russian energy cooperation. It is proposed that the scope of policy-related loans be expanded in foreign energy cooperation, fix the reasonable duration of policy-related loans for oil to reduce risks, fix the reasonable interest rates, and strengthen the oil supply mechanism between China and Russia, etc.
Professor Kuang Zengjun, CIBOS
Theme of the speech: China-Russia Arctic cooperation in the context of the “Belt and Road” Initiative. The foundation of China-Russia Arctic cooperation includes: comprehensive strategic partnership provides political guarantees and political preconditions for China-Russia Arctic cooperation; the great potential of bilateral economic and trade cooperation provides a material basis for China-Russia Arctic cooperation; The partial overlap of the Arctic interests of the two countries provides a prerequisite for China-Russia Arctic cooperation; the common understanding of Arctic cooperation between the two countries is a key factor in the development of Arctic cooperation; The relatively stable geopolitics of the Arctic offers the possibility of developing China-Russia Arctic cooperation. The problems of China-Russia Arctic cooperation include: Russia has shown a contradictory attitude towards the cooperation between the two countries in the Arctic region; issues of environmental protection in China-Russia Arctic cooperation; China-Russia Arctic cooperation is extensive but not deep enough. In the background of the “Belt and Road” Initiative, the sustainable development of China-Russia Arctic cooperation should be further encouraged, it needs to be market-oriented, with economic and trade as its the pillar, with characteristics as its break point, with the mechanism as its focus and the government as its guide. The two sides should contemplate the issue of Arctic cooperation from the global, regional and bilateral perspectives, and deal with issues of Arctic cooperation from macro, meso and micro levels, and promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China-Russia Arctic cooperation in a constructive manner.
Mrs. Mou Moying, Lecturer of CIBOS
Theme of the speech: A new analysis of the factors affecting the economic and trade cooperation in eastern border areas between China and Russia. The traditional view believes that the economic and trade cooperation in China-Russia border areas have a solid basis. However, for a long time the overall development level of the economic and trade cooperation in the eastern border areas of China and Russia remain low. Therefore, it is necessary to reconsider the factors affecting the economic and trade cooperation in the eastern border areas of China and Russia. The main factors affecting the development level of the economic and trade cooperation in eastern border areas of China and Russia are: the economic similarity of the two sides in the eastern border areas; the limited market capacity of the Russian border areas; the worries and disagreements among Russian governments; the psychological barrier between the two sides. The China-Russia border may have some obstacles in trade and cooperation, and it is hoped that the current status of bilateral trade cooperation between the two sides could be improved, thus to promote the development of border trade activities between the two countries under the context of the “Belt and Road” Initiative.
Mr. Ou Kaifei, Doctor Candidate of CIBOS
Theme of the speech: Russia's national border policy: inheritance and adjustment - based on the analysis of the 2018 edition of the Principles of the National Border Policy of Russian Federation. Ou Kaifei analyzed the specific reasons behind the change of Russia's border policy: On the one hand, the change of situations in the border areas constitutes external factors that affect the adjustment of Russia's border policy. By the end of the Cold War, the extreme priority of traditional security in international relations has declined. The newly emerged problems in the non-traditional security field is becoming increasingly harmful to the international community, thus they are attracting more attention on the domestic and international political agenda. The border security of a country also reflects this change. There are traditional border security issues and non-traditional border security issues in Russia's border security, and the impact of non-traditional border security issues to the security of border has further deepened. On the other hand, the ability to deal with border issues is an internal factor in the adjustment of Russia’s border policy. First, Russia has issued relevant domestic legislation and policy documents. Second, Russia and its neighbors are actively resolving the border issues. Moreover, Russia is actively caring out border infrastructure construction. Finally, Russia is further adjusting and optimizing the structure as well as the staffing of the border policy enforcement agencies.
Mr. Zhang Yue, Doctor Candidate of CIBOS
Theme of the speech: the construction of the community of common destiny in the "Belt and Union" cooperation. Zhang Yue believes that when building the community of common destiny in the process of connecting the "Silk Road Economic Belt" with the Eurasian Economic Union, we should consider the common characteristics of the community of common destiny, and analyze the particularities of the Eurasian region, in order to find out the specific implementation plan. To seek common ground while reserving differences, thus effectively deal with the difficulties and challenges encountered in the docking. The "Belt and Union" cooperation should start from politics, focus on the economy, build a safety barrier, encourage cultural exchanges, and promote environmental awareness, forming an interdependent political community, security community, economic community, cultural community and ecological community. Different from the dominant traditional realism international relations theory and neoclassical economic theory, the concept of the community of common destiny constructs the status and common concept of the state from the political, security, economic, cultural, ecological fields, etc. Thus, it can resolve the Thucydides Trap which is unsolvable under the realism, as well as correct the personal rational choice theory in neoclassical economics, providing important theoretical guidance for the "Belt and Union" cooperation. Therefore, the construction of the community of common destiny in the “Belt and Union” cooperation has important strategic significance, which not only enables the participants to not compromise the interests of other countries in the process of realizing their own economic goals, but also achieves win-win outcome, and can maintain the worldwide and regional peace and security.
(Rewritten by Yang Jingjie)
(Edited by Fu Shanshan)