周日（译者注：2017年9月3日）下午12:29左右在朝鲜的丰溪里（Punggye-ri）探测到了6.3级的地震，然而这并不是一场地震。据报道称这是朝鲜的第六次核试验，也是迄今为止朝鲜历史上威力最大的一次核爆试验。未来几天将会有进一步的详细分析证实朝鲜成功引爆氢弹这一消息是否可信。与此同时，由于美国总统特朗普的所作所为，首尔与华盛顿的关系目前也极其不明朗（译者注：朝鲜核试验震惊全球，特朗普在社交媒体推特上痛批韩国，炮轰首尔当局甚至扬言终结美韩自贸协定，美韩关系备受考验）。
在周日的核试验之前，有新闻报道称特朗普正在为美国退出美韩自由贸易协定（KORUS）做准备，目前还未做出最终决定。这一举动首先就是不合理的。在平壤最具威胁性的核试验之后，“从美韩自由贸易协定（KORUS）撤出”这一举动将向朝鲜和中国传递一个对美国极为不利的信号：美韩联盟破裂，美国将会失去在亚洲的一个重要盟友。
特朗普和韩国总统文在寅应该消除分歧，共同应对金正恩政权。对特朗普来说，他会越来越倾向于对朝鲜采取预防性的打击措施。一些国会议员可能会主张强有力的军事打击以彻底结束朝鲜的核威胁。但是，预防性的打击措施对于韩国来说可能是一个最坏的选择。
任何对朝鲜核设施的预防性打击都将导致朝鲜袭击韩国境内的美军基地，连无辜平民都会成为袭击目标。即使是一枚很小的核武器在首尔爆炸，也会造成成千上万的人死亡，数以百万计的人会遭遇核辐射中毒。韩国——世界第十二大经济体，第六大贸易强国，亚洲最有活力的民主国家——将不复存在。
美国方面，特朗普完全有权保障美国公民的人身和财产安全。同样地，文在寅也有权利保障5000万韩国公民的安全，同时也要保护生活在韩国的美国人和其他外籍人士。因此，文在寅有权拒绝白宫的预防性打击措施。关于朝鲜方面的情报一直十分缺乏，如果特朗普一旦决定由美国发动第一次攻击，他就必须做好全面战争的准备。
韩国方面，对文在寅来说，必须结束与朝鲜的一切接触。文在寅曾提议启动朝韩对话，却遭到金正恩的拒绝。如果朝韩关系可以得到有效的改善，文在寅希望重新开放开城工业园（译者注：“开城工业园”是韩国和朝鲜2003年开始合作建设的工业园，位于朝鲜开城并由朝鲜管辖，其主旨是吸引韩国企业投资，2016年韩国朴槿惠政府召回所有工作人员并暂时关闭了工业园）并扩大旅游业。但是很显然，一意孤行的朝鲜并不合作。文在寅必须向那些主张广泛与北朝鲜接触、提供大量人道主义援助或缓和美韩军事演习的顾问们施加压力。“对话机制”是可行的，但文在寅必须停止对朝鲜单方面的美好幻想。
现在，两个盟国（译者注：指美国和韩国）和日本必须同声共气，这意味着与韩国的萨德（THAAD）导弹防御部署相结合，共同加强威慑和防御设施建设。首尔的许多人都在谈论另一种选择，就是重新从美国引入战略核武器，如此一来韩国对朝鲜的进攻则不再受到来自华盛顿的暗中压力和阻碍。但这并不意味着韩国应该像英国、法国和以色列那样追求自己的核威慑力量，而是说韩国不能完全依赖美国的威慑力量，必须加快发展和部署属于自己的攻击性武器，必要时可以用来打击朝鲜。
如果真的有必要修改美韩自由贸易协定（KORUS），那么目标应该是重新谈判，而不是由美国单方面地废除这一贸易协定。的确，在与韩国的商品和服务贸易中，美国有280亿美元的贸易逆差，主要是来自于汽车和电子产品。但自美韩自由贸易协定（KORUS）签署以来，美国汽车的进口量增加了，2011年美国的服务顺差为69亿美元，到2016年上升为107亿美元。2016年，韩国从美国进口了5.91亿美元的武器，占其武器进口总量的近38%。韩国还提供了8.31亿美元用于分摊国防费用，并承担了亚洲最大的美军基地平塔克(Pyeongtaek)基地的建设成本7.67亿美元。
如果华盛顿想与韩国打一场贸易战，那么它会如愿以偿。新任命的韩国贸易部长金玄龙（音译Kim Hyun-jong）参与过美韩自由贸易协定（KORUS）的谈判，他的聪明才智毋庸置疑。但是美韩之间的贸易战只会让朝鲜和中国从中获利。正如孙子在《孙子兵法》中所说的那样“许多战役因缺乏合作而失败，尤其是在军事联盟国之间”。
现在不是首尔和华盛顿之间起争执的时候。没有一个盟友会像韩国那样忠诚。对于华盛顿来说，现在不是与首尔发动贸易战的时候；对于首尔来说，现在也不是对朝鲜进行“脆弱假设”的时候。韩国和美国之间需要的是“统一战线”，除此之外别无选择。
作者：李正民（Lee Chung Min）
韩国延世大学国际关系学院教授
韩国延世大学国际关系学院前院长
韩国国际安全事务大使（2009-2010）
韩国总统外交政策咨询顾问（2009-2010）
原文载于
2017年9月3日《华盛顿邮报》官方网站
翻译：付姗姗
（附：英文原文）
Facing North Korea：Washington and Seoul must avoid war with each other
At approximately 12:29 p.m. Sunday in Punggye-ri, North Korea, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake was detected — it reportedly marked the country’s sixth nuclear test and by far its largest yet. More detailed analysis will follow in the days ahead, including whether the North’s claim of having successfully detonated a hydrogen warhead is credible. In the meantime, this is hardly the moment to show daylight between Seoul and Washington — as President Trump appears to be doing.
Before Sunday’s test, news reports spoke of Trump’s impending decision to withdraw from the U.S.-South Korea free-trade agreement (KORUS). Such a move is unjustified in the first place. But after Pyongyang’s most threatening nuclear test so far, withdrawing from KORUS would send the worst possible signal to North Korea and China. If the White House proceeds to drop KORUS even after the test, it will severely damage one of America’s staunchest and important allies in Asia by throwing the U.S.-South Korea alliance to the wolves.
Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in ought to respond to the regime of Kim Jong Un jointly and without any ambiguity. For Trump, the temptation to hint about a preventive strike against North Korea will surely grow. Some members of Congress may advocate for a such a blow to end North Korea’s nuclear threat once and for all. But a preventive strike is the worst possible option for South Korea.
Any preventive strike on North Korean nuclear sites will result in North Korean attacks on U.S. bases in South Korea, as well as on civilian targets. Even if a small-yield nuclear weapon were dropped in Seoul, hundreds of thousands would die, and millions would suffer from radiation poisoning. South Korea as we know it — the world’s 12th-largest economy, the sixth-largest trading power and Asia’s most vibrant democracy — would cease to exist.
Trump has every right to protect the welfare and safety of American citizens. But so, too, does Moon for 50 million South Koreans, as well as the hundreds of thousands of Americans and foreigners living in the country. Moon is entitled to disagree with the White House on a preventive attack. Real-time and verifiable intelligence is always in short supply when it comes to North Korea, and Trump must be prepared for a full-fledged war if he decides on a U.S. first strike.
For his part, Moon must end all engagement with North Korea. His proposal to jump-start inter-Korean dialogue has been rebuffed by Kim. Moon wants to reopen the shared Kaesong Industrial Complex and resume tourist trips if South-North relations improve. But a North Korea that has hydrogen bombs is not a partner. Moon must put his foot down on advisers who advocate extensive engagement with the North, provision of massive humanitarian assistance or the toning down of U.S.-South Korea military exercises. No one is against dialogue, but the Moon administration’s one-sided love affair with Pyongyang must end.
For now, the two allies and Japan must sing from the same page. This means going through with the rest of the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) missile-defense deployments in South Korea and accelerating deterrence and defense assets. Many in Seoul have talked about the reintroduction of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons into South Korea. That’s one option. South Korea’s offensive capabilities against North Korea can no longer be stymied by tacit pressures from Washington. That doesn’t mean South Korea should pursue its own nuclear deterrent as Britain, France and Israel have done. But South Korea cannot rely solely on U.S. deterrence; it has to accelerate the development and deployment of its own offensive weapons that can hit all North Korean targets.
If there’s a need to tamper with KORUS, the goal should be renegotiation, not unilateral U.S. abrogation. It’s true that United States has a $28 billion trade deficit in goods and services with South Korea, mostly in automobiles and electronics. But imports of American cars have risen since KORUS was signed — and the U.S. service surplus of $6.9 billion in 2011 rose to $10.7 billion in 2016. In 2016, South Korea imported $591 million in arms from the United States, or nearly 38 percent of its total arms imports. South Korea also provides $831 million for defense cost-sharing and assumed $767 million of the cost of building a U.S. military base in Pyeongtaek — the largest in Asia.
If Washington wants a trade war with South Korea, it will get one. The newly appointed minister of trade, Kim Hyun-jong, negotiated KORUS, and no one should doubt his brains or brawn. But a fight between the allies only benefits North Korea and China. As Sun Tzu reminds us in “The Art of War,” many a campaign has been ruined through lack of cooperation, especially in the case of allied armies.
This is no time for a dispute between Seoul and Washington. No ally has been as loyal as South Korea. For Washington, now is not the time to begin a trade war with Seoul. And for Seoul, now is not the time for flaky assumptions about North Korea. We need a united front; there is no other option.
原文载于
2017年9月3日《华盛顿邮报》官方网站
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